BUSINESSES WILL face a historically broad and deep set of risks in 2023, posing interconnected and existential threats across geographies and sectors. That’s according to specialist risk consultancy Control Risks.

Launching its annual Risk Map forecast featuring the foremost for business, Control Risks has pointed to a combination of fractious geopolitics, armed conflict, disrupted energy systems, economic strife and disarray in digital networks during the coming year, with cyber risk at the top of the agenda.

In 2023, we can expect the emergence of a fundamental breakdown of global networks into distinct regional or even national architectures, caused by the ‘weaponisation’ of cyber space and a clash of national interests. The ambition of operating a single, global network will be significantly challenged.

Enabled by an expanded attack surface and a significant increase in automation across the entire spectrum of cyber threats, the cyber arms race will accelerate in 2023. In parallel to this ‘weaponisation’, nation states are looking to exert more control over what some have already defined as their national cyber space. Network and system resilience will be tested like never before.

Fragmenting world order

Nick Allan, CEO at Control Risks CEO, asserted: “In the fragmenting world order, the weapons of choice for many states will be found in the cyber sphere. This will either be through the spread of disinformation, aided by improving deepfake technology, or through cyber attacks or both.”

As a business operating in both the geopolitical and cyber arenas, Control Risks can see very clearly the direct correlation between geopolitical tensions and cyber aggression. “An element of uncertainty and fear provides a level of state-versus-state deterrence,” observed Allan, “but corporates find themselves as easier targets for proxy and real wars. This is made worse by the transfer of military-grade cyber capabilities to criminal or radicalised groups.”

Further, Allan explained: “2023 will see more geopolitical and economic volatility accompanied by operational challenges in energy and digital networks. The increasingly apparent effects of a changing climate will add additional stresses and strains. Resilience, insight and courage will be the watchwords for business in the year ahead.”

Supporting the top risks for 2023 is a new map, the Global Risk Forecast. This shows an holistic business risk rating for the countries of the world that draws on a selection of risks. The composite score includes Control Risks’ political, security, operational, regulatory, cyber and integrity risks and encompasses a range of environmental, social and corporate governance-related risks.

Each rating reflects Control Risks’ outlook for overall risks to business to the end of 2023, taking into account known or anticipated trends and developments that could impact the business environment.

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THE SECURITY Research Initiative (SRI) has just published its latest report. Entitled ‘The Role of Security in Influencing the Budget’, the aim of this latest research study – sponsored by Axis Communications, Bidvest Noonan, interr, M&S, Mitie, OCS, PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Security Industry Authority and Sodexo – was to explore the extent to which security managers are able to influence the security budget, whether (and why) this matters and how greater influence can be attained.

Results are based on the views of security professionals from both in-house and contract positions (predominantly those currently in a ‘security manager/director’-type role), collected via an online survey in addition to in-depth interviews.

The survey outcomes make for particularly interesting reading. 76% of those security professionals surveyed agreed that being able to influence the budget is key to delivering good security. Influence over the budget was considered important for several reasons. It’s deemed to afford status to security in discussions with other departments, in turn enabling security advice and proposals to commonly be listened to, while also helping to direct the allocation of resources using relevant expertise.

A lack of influence here means that security managers cannot purchase basic and essential resources or plan effectively, duly resulting in security decisions being made by non-security experts.

Levels of influence

Some 51% of respondents in a current security management role had a high level of influence on the budget. 10% were ‘not involved’. 46% of security managers/directors thought that their current budget was ‘insufficient’ (42% thought it was ‘sufficient’). Unsurprisingly, those with the highest levels of influence over the budget were the least likely to view it to be insufficient.

Reasons for the budget being considered less than required included the belief that the budget allocated did not reflect the risks faced and didn’t cover key areas such as training, travel, basic equipment and contingencies. Teams were understaffed, rising costs are not covered and it’s often a case of being asked to provide more for less.

The chances of being allocated an appropriate budget were improved if the security function was seen as being core to business (86% of respondents agreed on this assertion), an organisation understands its security threats and risks (85% agreed) and/or the security team has a high status (83% agreed).

Research participants highlighted a number of ways in which security managers can become influential. For example, they can relate security spend to reducing business risks and improving operations, highlight the dangers and risks in not meeting objectives, ensure the risk owner understands and accepts the implications/risks and use data to underpin the fact that arguments are evidence-based. Further, they can link physical security spend to cyber security (where the latter is is viewed as a greater priority, thereby attracting a bigger budget).

Overall, this latest SRI research underlines the importance of security professionals being able to influence the budget, so too the barriers to them being able to do so effectively.

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